Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
